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Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Prepare for a dip in T3 availability

And Chronotis spake. And there are changes in the wind for T3 manufacturers. Prepare for a dip in T3 availability for the next month.

Let's look at what he said:

- Reverse engineering results will get better for Malfunctioning and Intact (more runs per BPC).
- More Radar/Mag sites.
- Better quantities in Radar sites.
- Reverse Engineering will give back more of the items on the failures, reducing failure costs.
- Some gasses are getting more dense.
- Power Conduits are going to use Scandium instead of Carbon-86.

That last one is going to be the big reason for the dip in production over the next month. This has been announced well in advance (at least a month in advance since the changes haven't hit Sisi yet). But if manufacturing is going to be cheaper in the future, it'll be worth waiting for the changes to hit Tranquility. Not to mention waiting with the less expensive Reverse engineering to hit Tranquility.

Expect the market to go up in the next month as producers hold off reverse engineering and manufacture for the most part till the changes are implemented. This should have some interesting effects on the T3 markets over the next month.


Anonymous said...

I read CCP Chronotis' devblog with a lot of interest as we prepare to make our first foray into the unknown. We have a fairly motley collection of pilots, skills and interests, but we're excited about the operation. It's been worth the experience of planning out all of our needs, getting our supplies and trying to work around schedules.

It will be interesting to see if we decide it's worth it to proceed with full-scale T3 production, or just try to liquidate the collected materials. I put together a rough estimate of costs for T3 productions and came up with about 890 million [including arrays and excluding training time] necessary for a semi-literate scientist to be able to begin production. I think the time can be mitigated by diversifying the process between our researchers and our producers. The only real hiccup is that I really want to be able to do it all too!

Thanks for keeping us updated on all your progress in the wormhole business. It has again figured into our own preparations for wormhole occupation.

Kename Fin said...

Bah. Blogger ate the name/login on the previous post. It's me again.

Letrange said...

Humm, It would be interesting to see exactly how you break down that 890mil in "production costs". I think you mean "production asset investments". And you'd need to separate direct investment and indirect investments (need a subsystem assembly array vs. need a pos to put it in) I would think. These are different from actual manufacturing expenses (for example the Zydrine used in certain polymer reactions not to mention a portion of the fuel burn for a specific reaction run (adding in the extra hour startup time and any hang time at the end when the array is still online burning fuel after the job is finished). Within AMC individual pilots/corps kinda took care of that level of investment since they wanted the capabilities for themselves regaless of alliance usage of them (for example I have the entire set of T3 componet BPO's - mine, mine, all mine :P ).

Kename Fin said...

Agreed. I tried to indicate it was for getting started and indeed could be effectively spread out over the course of all future productions. I didn't mean to infer that this was actual production cost of any particular T3 system or component. The actual production costs would ongoing and require some additional monitoring.

Do you do your production in "The Grotto" or export the materials for reaction/invention/assembly elsewhere?

Letrange said...

It's actually spread around. Now that more manufacturers and tower owners have acquired various reactions POS modules and what not, we actually have more than one person for each the various stages and I spread the work arround. For example the latest reactions were done in "the fishing hole" instead of "paw's grotto". Having the capacity in various locations means I can spread the work around and makes us less vulnerable to corp theft and having a critical POS attacked and what not. Besides most of the guys who do the work are also the ones who have the lion's share of shares in the project. Makes it rather unlikely they would steal from themselves.

Anonymous said...

I'd be interested in your take on my views of how this will impact things.

Just for the sake of argument, lets go with the following assumptions, even if they are way off.

Market price for hull and all subsystems: 2.5B
MARKET price of all base materials: 1B
Producing reactions, reverse engineering, and manufacturing costs per unit: 100MM
Producing reactions, reverse engineering, and manufacturing profit: 1.4B

Those are just made up figures. Actually, if you could make those numbers more realistic, I'd appreciate it, but understand if it's somehow considered intellectual property of the non lazy. :)

Looking at the dev blog, and looking at T2 history, the 1.4B profit will continually erode untill its something much cheaper like 50MM a ship. The increased drops form sleeper sites will mean that the base materials price will drop drastically also. Lets say it gets to 200MM, so total ship price of 350MM.

Where I'm going with all this is that if they increase the base materials supply, thereby lowering its value, a lot of the supply will start to dry up as people re-evaluate the risk/reward scenario of taking on advanced AI sleepers while dealing with the ever present player pvp threat in WH's. This would then raise the price again until lets say a T3 ship is well north of 500MM. In CCP's stated intent of having these reasonably priced, do they nerf sleepers? This would then turn them into nothing but L4's that you have to scan down.

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